With the possibility of a supersized El Niño bringing hotter, drier conditions across Australia this summer, UniSC experts are available to discuss a wide range of potential impacts – here, in the Pacific, and around the world. 

From bushfire risk and environmental change to human health, social resilience and the spread of misinformation during climate-related events, the below experts are available to comment.

Ocean temperatures and coral bleaching, and the limits of a ‘safe’ climate 

Professor David Schoeman, UniSC Professor of Global-Change Ecology

Email: dschoema@usc.edu.au

Professor David Schoeman is a quantitative ecologist who specialises in marine climate-change ecology and climate-smart marine conservation planning. 

“Over the past year or two, the impacts of international conflicts have distracted us from the threat of climate change - so much so that some politicians think Australians have done enough on climate change and that climate action and net-zero targets should be dropped. This El Niño will show us why these notions are flawed,” Professor Schoeman said. 

“Climate warming over the past decade has already broken the pattern of extreme coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef being dependant on El Niño conditions, but the additional warming caused by an El Niño of this strength suggests devastating bleaching over the coming months. 

“Previous strong El Niños have typically been followed by a sudden step-up in ocean and air temperatures, setting a new ‘normal’ from which warming will proceed. We breached 1.5ºC of warming during 2024, and although 2025 was marginally cooler, this El Niño could see average annual temperatures approaching 1.7º–1.8ºC above the pre-industrial era. This is perilously close to the upper limit of what is considered a ‘safe’ climate, noting that “safe” and “comfortable” are markedly different conditions.” 

Misinformation, AI and the weather 

Associate Professor Renee Barnes, Associate Professor in Journalism

Email: renee.barnes@usc.edu.au 

Associate Professor Renee Barnes can comment on how information impacts public communication and trust, including political deepfakes and how news content is repurposed and stripped of context on social media.  

"During emergencies, misinformation isn't just annoying, it can be dangerous. A fake evacuation notice, an old photo passed off as a current fire, or an AI-generated image can send people in the wrong direction or distract from official warnings,” Dr Barnes said. 

"AI tools have made it cheap to create convincing fake images and video of disasters. That also cuts the other way: genuine footage can be dismissed as fake, which erodes trust at exactly the moment people need reliable information. 

"We tend to focus on whether people believe false content, but the bigger damage is often to trust in general. When people see enough manipulated material, they start doubting authentic information too, and that's a real problem for democracy."

Climate-related misinformation and how it spreads online 

Dr Naomi Smith, UniSC Senior Lecturer in Sociology. 

Email: nsmith7@usc.edu.au

Dr Naomi Smith can explain how misinformation and rumours spread online during climate and weather emergencies, why people are vulnerable to misleading information during times of uncertainty, and how trusted communication can support community preparedness and resilience. 

Sorcery accusation-related violence (SARV) in Papua New Guinea 

Ali Moloney, UniSC Nursing Lecturer

Email: amoloney@usc.edu.au

Ali Moloney has extensive experience in rural and remote health care delivery, emergency, and critical care nursing. She says there is a risk that El Nino conditions could exacerbate sorcery-related violence in Papua New Guinea. 

“Research suggests drought and environmental hardship can increase the risk of sorcery accusations in Papua New Guinea by creating conditions that heighten food insecurity, illness, livestock deaths and community tensions,” Dr Moloney said. 

“These stresses can act as triggers for accusations, particularly where existing social conflicts are present. Effective El Niño preparedness should include strategies to prevent misinformation, rumours and sorcery-related violence alongside drought response measures.” More here.

Public health in the Pacific 

Dr Matthew Mason, Senior Lecturer, Nursing

Email: mmason1@usc.edu.au

Dr Matthew Mason says El Niño conditions can exacerbate health problems in the Pacific. 

“The strong El Niño now underway across the tropical Pacific is bringing drought, water shortages and extreme weather to Pacific Island nations, straining already stretched health systems and heightening the risk of waterborne and infectious diseases, malnutrition and disrupted health service delivery,” Dr Mason said. 

“Health data are already bearing this out: Solomon Islands recorded roughly 7,000 malaria cases in the first half of 2026, well above forecast, and El Niño-driven warming is linked to sharp rises in dengue transmission across the tropics.  

“As the event is forecast to intensify into 2027, health authorities across the Western Pacific are being urged to strengthen early-warning systems and emergency preparedness to protect vulnerable communities.”

PTSD as a result of climate change-related weather events 

Professor Alain Brunet, Director, National PTSD Research Centre at the UniSC Thompson Institute

Email: TI_Director@usc.edu.au 

Professor Alain Brunet says extreme conditions can lead to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, and Australians should monitor for symptoms.  

“PTSD diagnoses are on the rise in Australia, exacerbated by floods, bushfires and other climate change-related weather events,” Professor Brunet said. 

“Symptoms of PTSD can include recurrent memories, emotions, and sensations of a traumatic event through sensory nightmares or flashbacks, difficulty sleeping, poor concentration, hypervigilance, irritability, emotional withdrawal and experience avoidance.”   

The National PTSD Research Centre offers a free online screening tool for PTSD to help people determine if they meet the threshold to pursue a diagnosis or consider seeking support. If, after four weeks, people are still experiencing symptoms, then it’s a good idea to do the PTSD screener. 

Irrigation to minimise bushfire risk 

Jady Smith, PhD researcher at Forest Research Institute

Email: jady.smith@research.usc.edu.au 

Forest researcher Jady Smith says recent research shows consistent reduction in the predicted spread and intensity of bushfires when green firebreaks were irrigated, including under the most severe conditions. 

“Our preliminary assessment indicates that keeping vegetation moist has a significant impact on how a fire behaves,” he said. 

“The modelling shows even small amounts of water, such as one or two millimetres a day, can slow the spread and reduce the intensity of bushfires, even in catastrophic conditions. 

In moderate fire weather, for example, the modelling predicted fire would spread nearly four times faster in the dry eucalypt forest scenario than in the non-irrigated green firebreak, and more than 80 times faster than in the irrigated green firebreak receiving two millimetres of water daily. 

Heatwaves - impacting urban design, living and working conditions 

Dr Silvia Tavares, UniSC Senior Lecturer in Urban Design and Town Planning, Leader of the Bioclimatic Architecture and Sensitive Cities Lab (BASC Lab)

Email: stavares@usc.edu.au

Dr Silvia Tavares has extensive experience in urban microclimates and climate-sensitive design and planning. She collaborates with city councils to inform strategies related to urban heat mitigation, human thermal comfort, green infrastructure, public health, and climate change impacts. 

“El Niño temperatures are likely to be above average in most areas of Australia, and higher daytime temperatures are likely to be observed. Urban environments can generate significant urban heat islands, which are exacerbated during extreme heat events such as the predicted El Niño, which is likely to make some structures uncomfortable or even unsafe to inhabit,” Dr Tavares says.  

“Urban Design and Planning have an important role to play ensuring that built form and vegetation provide shade without blocking cooling breezes, and the choice of public spaces’ building materials help maintain lower temperatures throughout day and night.

“Climate-sensitive design must be integrated across all planning levels — regulation, strategy, and implementation — to achieve climate-resilient infrastructure and heat-safe urban environments as hotter conditions are projected to continue for many years 

“This approach delivers multiple benefits: protecting ecosystems, improving human thermal comfort, reducing heat stress, and enhancing building energy performance.”